It seems that the Falkland Islands are never far from the news with Argentina’s refusal to keep the islands out of the international spotlight. In spite of, and maybe because of, their defeat in 1982 Argentina continues to lay claim to the islands that they refer to as Las Malvinas and has recently stepped up those claims. As far as international law is concerned the Falklands, despite their physical proximity to Argentina, remain a sovereign territory and a part of the British Commonwealth. The population, small though it is, remains English-speaking and 100% committed to maintaining its links to the UK. That really should be an end to the matter but, of course, things are never that simple.

The latest flare-up has arisen through two matters, I suspect, namely the potentially rich oil and gas deposits off the islands and political  opportunism by an Argentine president, anxious to cling on to political power. The UK has responded, though it may be coincidence, by sending to the islands a Royal Prince as well as a state of the art warship from our dwindling navy. Today the Argentines have stated that we also have a nuclear submarine in the area or at least on its way there.

So what does all this mean? Is it mere rhetoric by the Argentine president or is it something more sinister? Are the islands at risk once more and is there a danger that Argentina, aware of the fact that we have weakened considerably since 1982, may be prepared to have another go. If they are, then are we capable of successfully defending the islands once more and will there be the political will and public support to see it through? Difficult questions and none of them are easy to answer, though I feel the public would most probably support a defence of British sovereign territory and I’m sure that the Prime Minister would be equally supportive.

However, the problem remains that it is a conflict that we could lose and clearly we should do everything we could to avoid any escalation towards that conflict. We are no longer the force that we were. On the world stage we have considerably declined economically, militarily and politically and 19th century style gunboat diplomacy is no longer an option for us. In 1982 we successfully defended the islands through the political will of Margaret Thatcher and a well organised and equipped task force backed fully by public opinion. We were also fortunate to have American support and luckier still to face a poorly equipped enemy, half of whose bombs and shells failed to explode even when they hit the target.

This time, I doubt we’ll get the same support from President Obama as we got from the anglophile President Reagan and I don’t think we should rely on faulty Argentine weaponry either. If relations continue to deteriorate between Argentina and the UK we may well have no option but to place the whole issue in the lap of the United Nations; a bitter pill to swallow but better than military humiliation.